Saturday, April 29, 2017

Trump GDP numbers break pattern in a POSITIVE way -- but Media LIES about it.


This is the chart the media has used to attack Trump.  But as we can clearly see, the first Quarter of 2017 was part of a pattern going back to the Bush Era.  EVERY TWELFTH QUARTER IS NEGATIVE, except for the one associated with the TRUMP BUMP.

Curiously, this is actually to be expected and is consistent with the observations reported in the book, No Trump Card: The First Fifty-six Days After Babylon the Great City Fell (Trump Card series Book 1)

And YES, Babylon the Great City [America] did fall relative to the extraordinary growth rate under Harry S Truman {shown in the chart in this earlier Blog}.
Truman had a GDP growth of 155%.  Because of that, the average quarter to quarter growth rate since  January 1947, through the current first quarter in 2017, has been 101.58% -- Jimmy Carter topped Truman's quarterly growth rate by more than double, but was unable to match the overall rate which we can attribute to the Returning GI's, their new families, and the start of the Baby-Boom.  In a single term, Carter grew the economy 20% faster/higher than Reagan did in two terms.

While Obama was consistently below average and was opposed at every turn by the Republicans, he did manage a 76% GDP growth rate -- which topped GW Bush's 72% but was not as good as GHW's 82.5%.

And while the media lied about Trump's rate being the lowest in three years, the actual figures show it was more than TWICE the 2016 rate for the same period under Obama.  It also exceeded the quarter prior to that by 70%.  It even exceeded the January 2015 percentage change numbers -- the July 2014 numbers appear to be the only time Obama exceeded the 70-year average which GW exceeded four times before destroying the economy.

The real issue is not the media lies.  We are accustomed to that in the same way we are accustomed to Trump's variation on the Muhammad Ali/Cassius Clay "I am the Greatest" assertions.
The real issue is why there should be a drop in GDP Growth every three years, or 12th quarter.  In Real Estate, the third year is the transition year of a project from development to income producing.  But why would we see that in a GDP Chart that touches three administrations?