Monday, August 29, 2016

Theodore Schultz macroeconomics as modern/future economics

Step TWO in understanding economics -- as it was and as it evolved.
The initial stage of modern society began with the first farmer -- one individual who could produce enough for themselves and ten others.  The number ten was the ideal based on the idea that an individual male would marry and, on average, have as many as nine children.  Since reproduction is a process which constricts the minimum time between children to roughly 16 months, to produce nine children would require a minimum of 138 months from the initial conception of the first child until the birth of the ninth -- so assume 12-years.
Twelve years is puberty and early cultural adulthood -- the Romeo and Juliet age of romance and marriage which remains the age of consent in many cultures.  It would, therefore, be the age when a female would be married off, or a male would be expected to be productive enough to be self-sustaining.  The adulthood ceremony -- in Hebrew the Bar Mitzvah -- is age 13, and so falls before the birth of the tenth child would be born.

Now we introduce Government -- that is, a leadership which is a coordinator of activities of importance to the community, tribe, clan, or other groups of individuals who identify as an extended family, or mutually dependent social unit.
Military groups began as thieves -- nomadic bands of individuals who had no basis for production of crops, or fixed territorial claims for hunting.  These groups would raid tribal groups, steal their production or goods, possibly -- as in the Exodus story -- kill all the men, and take all the women of reproductive age as mates.  Or, as military, would simply kill, rob and rape then leave the territory and seek out a new target for their aggression.
This form of a tribal military organization was then responded to by the formation of a defense force which would then become a different form of territorial-thief whose goal was the expansion of borders.
There is a common need to [protect and nurture one's own.   This is the basis of charity and is also a role of Government.  Individuals can assist individuals on a relatively random basis.  But to ensure that all individuals who are in need are cared for requires a system created expressly for that purpose -- this is either the "religious leader" or the government -- both might effectively be the same. 
Ultimately, one tenth of all production was needed to ensure that there were ample funds for defense and charity.  Charity being the proper maintenance of the elderly, sick, orphaned, or injured.  By its nature, a government is a service and so  is effectively more productive -- if conducted without discrimination or arbitrary restrictions on  who can benefit from their services.  Each level of restriction introduces levels of inefficiency which then reduce the ability to respond to need and raise the cost of any response.
As we move away from farms into factories and then on to service economies, the age of independence and productivity increases.  Where a 13-year-old could, without question, farm or handle sheep and cattle, without the need for education,  as employment required education the age of independence increased.
At the dawn of the industrial age, there was a transition based on apprenticeship -- and that allowed for child labor and only minimal education.   But that soon changed and child labor gave way to extended education -- six years of education yielded to the need for 12 years.  Now the twelve has become 16-years and is moving in the direction of 18-20 years.  The age of independence is rising -- though not as rapidly as the  number of years of education.  Human Physiology is such that it demands reproduction between 18 and 45, with the ideal age for a woman to have her first child being prior to age 30.  Therefore there is a growing overlap between female education and childbearing.  There is also a graying area in the definition of productivity.   As efficiencies increase, unemployment will become a problem, unless the definition of a workweek is changed and fewer hours yield the same pay. 
But, we'll get to that.

For now,  take a look at the Federal Budget -- MILITARY as THIEVES ... 57% of the Budget.  Ike Eisenhower warned of the Military Industrial Complex and the damage it would do.
Why does America spend more than half its budget on the ability to kill people?
Why does it spend more than the next 5 to 7 Nations combined?
Why has it bgun a conflict that has lasted since 9/11, and killed tens of thousands wiothout achieving anything?
Could it be the goal is to destroy the American economy?  


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